Tuesday, August 09, 2022


Updated on August 8, 2022 10:05:16 AM EDT

There is no relevant economic data scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us four pieces of monthly and quarterly economic data, including a couple of highly important inflation releases. In addition to the data, there are also two Treasury auctions set that may influence rates midweek.

Activities start tomorrow morning with the release of Employee Productivity and Costs data for the second quarter. It helps us track employee output per hour worked. High levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow with less threat of inflation. This is one of the few reports where the stronger headline number is favorable news for rates. Forecasts have productivity falling at a 4.5% annual rate. A much smaller decline in productivity and a noticeably smaller rise in labor costs than 9.3% would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, Wednesday is the best candidate for most active day for rates due to the importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the afternoon auction results. That said, it is fairly safe to assume that we will have another week with plenty of movement in rates. The importance of some of the data makes it highly likely rates will again move noticeably during the week. Therefore, it would be prudent to watch the markets closely if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2022