Wednesday, August 04, 2021


Updated on August 4, 2021 10:02:28 AM EDT

Today’s only relevant economic data was Julys ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It showed a surprisingly low 330,000 new private-sector jobs. This was less than half the number that was expected and is a sign the employment sector is even weaker than thought.

The ADP report has a history of not correlating with the results of the governmental monthly Employment report that is set for release Friday. However, this was a large enough variance from expectations that it raises questions about forecasts for Friday’s release. We can consider this release good news for the bond and mortgage markets, hence the early gains this morning.

Tomorrow has just last week’s unemployment figures scheduled for release. They are expected to show 375,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down from the previous week’s 400,000 initial filings. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness, meaning the higher the number tomorrow, the better it is for mortgage rates.

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